The objective of this work package is to provide mathematical models to extrapolate data obtained in the other work packages to assess the risk of treated avian litter and hatching waste, of fresh and treated poultry commodities, and of feathers for trade purposes or to assess the likelihood of virus remaining at the time of restocking.
This WP will provide the statistical knowledge required for all studies in the other work packages. Based on experimental results in particular of WP2 mathematical models will be established to enable us to extrapolate data produced in the laboratory. In addition the model will provide the statistical analyses of the data to quantify the reliability of the data. Die-of curves will be prepared as function of time, temperature and pH in different and or other environmental variables. The die-off kinetics can than be used to properly assess the risk of poultry commodities and of litter at time of repopulation. Die off kinetics is used to asses the (remaining) risk of using poultry commodities, feathers and litter treated in various ways and used as manure.